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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-10-09T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-10-09T02:00Z
CME Note: Halo CME seen in C2 at 10-09T02:36Z and C3 at 10-09T06:30Z. Visible to the NW as seen by STA at 10-08T21:09Z. Source is unclear.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-10-12T21:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-10-14T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/11367/1
Model Inputs:
2016-10-09T02:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-22.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=243.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2016-10-09T15:56Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2016-10-14T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20161009_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 54.70 hour(s)
Difference: -26.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-10-10T14:39Z

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